The global mining and metals industry has experienced accelerated consolidation, portfolio rationalization, divestments, downstream integration, distressed situations and off-take demand. Companies are in better financial shape and balance sheets are optimized for further growth. These trends create considerable opportunities.
The momentum for Gold is also accelerating, with a confluence of all the key factors firmly in place. There are six major factors (“we like to call the big six” and firing on “all six cylinders”) contributing to the current bull market as follows:
Number one, gold is a natural hedge for both inflation and deflation. The opportunity cost for holding gold is very low right now in a deflationary situation.
Interest rates are near zero in the US and negative in some areas of Europe, so currencies are not paying the interest that previously gave them an advantage over gold. Secondly, if you have money and you are looking to invest in a safe haven instrument, the only choices are now gold or the US dollar. The Euro and the Pound sterling have lost their luster, as has the Japanese Yen. Gold and the US dollar now are the usual “flights to safety” instruments, but the federal reserve is printing trillions of dollars to provide relief for the crisis, which will debase and devalue the US currency. In such a scenario gold is the clear winner.
The third factor is geopolitical, specifically tension between China and US, which has evolved from simply trade tariffs and protectionism, to the US now claiming that China is culpable in the spread of the coronavirus.
Fourthly, Central Banks are increasing their purchases of gold. We also expect China’s central bank to increase its gold purchases to diversify its massive foreign reserves.
The fifth factor is the supply factor, as there has been limited large-scale exploration success in the past decade.
Lastly, the demand factor, which historically has come from Asia – particularly the Indians and Chinese – and despite the Indian wedding season being impacted by the pandemic, the upward trend of gold will see a scramble for physical gold post-pandemic. In China the government actively encourages its citizens to hold gold in their personal portfolios and Chinese and Hong Kong retail buyers have been grabbing any retail gold bars that become available. See full article by Keith Spence: https://www.gbreports.com/interview/keith-spence